Looks like we have some beautiful weather for river trips coming up in the next few days! Can't wait to get you all out there!
The midwest does what the midwest does. Overnight the forecast changed from just early morning storms, to scattered storms throughout most of the day and chance of more storms this evening. Were are expected to receive quite a nit of rain throughout the day. Because of this, if you have a reservation for today and don't want to brave the elements, we can reschedule your trip for a later date or send a refund out. If you aren't afraid of the forecast, we will still send you out.
Below is a more in depth analysis of todays weather:
Showers and storms have develops across northern and eastern Iowa early this morning heading toward Wisconsin. This complex of storms are developing along an axis of mid level moisture advection and frontogenesis. The low level jet is playing a big role in the development of these storms early this morning. CAM`s have been persistent this morning showing showers and storms moving into and developing across southwestern Wisconsin around daybreak. As the storms continue to push eastward they are expected to weaken. This is in large part due to the weakening low level jet and some increased capping near the lakeshore. As we head into the evening there is still a highly conditional chance for some additional showers and thunderstorm to develop along the cold front. CAPE will be low around 500 J/kg or less with weak forcing. Under better conditions this would be enough to generate some stronger storms, but this CAPE potential is largely dependent on how quickly clouds can clear out this morning (ie diurnal driven). Even with the best case scenario on clearing, there is little in the way of upper level support. With the low and skinny CAPE profiles and some low level capping/inversions to overcome, any storms that due develop are expected to be elevated. Despite all of this there will be some modest deep layer shear, so any storms that can sustain an updraft could bring some gusty winds. The short and sweet of it here, is there is a chance for some isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon and evening so keep an eye on the weather today.
It looks like we'll be getting some storms this Saturday. Looking at the forecast and reading the detailed weather discussion it looks like the storms will mainly be coming early in the day around 8am and dispersing around 10-11am. There is a chance of some rain popping up later in the day but because of the cloud cover and early storms, they shouldn't be severe. If you are heading out on the river tomorrow, I recommend reading up on river and storm safety. We have some great detailed information on both right here on our website. Also, come prepared so you can keep yourself and your gear dry!
Below is the detailed weather forecast for our region tomorrow.
A shortwave trough currently over Utah will move to the wrn Great Lakes by 18Z Sat. A good surge of 850-700 mb warm, moist advection will move across ern IA and srn WI Sat AM into the early afternoon. An organized but elevated line of showers and sct storms will move across the region with some weakening possible over ern WI. There will then be an opportunity for isold to sct storms late Sat afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. The lack of upper dynamics, weak convergence along the front, and lingering cloud cover from earlier in the day will likely limit the extent and intensity of the storms. Nwly winds and cold and dry air advection will then clear the skies from west to east during the late night hours.
If only the weather could just stay like how its been for the past couple days... It looks like we still have a couple beautiful days ahead but Saturday may bring some rain. We will continue to update on the forecast as the week progresses. Looking forward to sending everyone out on the river this week!
River levels did not rise as much as expected and weather conditions look fantastic! Couldn't ask for a better time to be out on the river. We'll see you out there!
Yesterdays storm brought in ALOT of rain to our watershed. Looks like water levels will be on the rise for the next couple days. It looks like the water level will peak around Sunday and drop steadily from then on. As of right now, weekend trips still look possible but we will keep a close eye on the river level to make sure the prediction is correct. Any updates about river level will be posted here!
On the bright side, it looks like nothing but great weather forecasted for the next week. Should be a great time to get out on the Wisconsin!!
Looks like severe storms are a strong possibility today... Tornado and large hail along with strong winds are possible.
Here is the in depth look at the forecast:
There is high mean layer CAPE values and fairly robust deep layer and low layer bulk shear values later this afternoon and evening. Storms should initiate west of the area later this afternoon, where they should become supercells with tornado, large hail and damaging wind risks. Forecast soundings are indicating hodographs becoming more straight-line across the area into early evening, which suggests any supercells becoming more bowing segments with QLCS tornado and damaging wind risks as they move east through the area. Any northward to eastward surges in any of these segments would have these risks, given the 0-3km shear vector magnitude and orientation.
Its going to be a hot one today! Temperatures are expected to hit 95+ so if you are going out on the river make sure you prepare accordingly. We do have a chance of thunderstorms later in the day on Wednesday but the rest of the week is looking beautiful! As of right now, there is only a 60% chance of storms tomorrow so we will continue to keep an eye on the forecast.
Looks like we'll be getting some showers today. If you're planning on going out on the river make sure to come prepared for rainy weather! If you are unsure about weather conditions, you can email or text us and we can work on a reschedule for your trip.
Here is an in depth look at the weather for today from the area forecast discussion:
More scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through tonight. There will be decent upper level support with a weak shortwave swinging through the Great Lakes region. The associated surface low and cold front will be moving from the Dakotas early this morning and into Wisconsin by tonight. So there will be no shortage of lift today, but the instability for thunderstorms will be lacking. Forecast soundings today have very low CAPE around 500 J/kg or less and a very long and skinny profile. Low and mid level lapse rates are also relatively low with values close to moist adiabatic. Given this, expecting slightly more widespread rain in comparison to yesterday, but a much lower chances for thunderstorms to develop. Precipitation chance will start to diminish behind the cold front tonight as drier air begins to move in. Drier conditions are expected Sunday.
River levels have dropped and are at a pretty good spot for overnight trips. Forecast is currently a little mixed on whether we get some rain on Saturday or not, but nothing severe is forecasted. Lets get canoeing!